VOX POPULI
by
S Kamat
as
Aam Admi
Issue: 273 Date: 18.03.2019
Contents:
1. The Rafael Case At The Supreme Court
2. The Mahagathbandhan Is Getting Unstuck
3. Indo-Pak Talks At The Time Of Elections?
4. Who Will Get The Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow?
The Rafael Case At The Supreme Court
In the Rafael case at the Supreme Court the arguments by the Advocate General Venugopal are getting more and more hilarious. After his claim that the Rafael papers were 'stolen' from the Defence Ministry, he retracted the next day saying he used the word wrongly and what he meant was that the papers were photo-copied and presented to the court in an unauthorised manner. Subsequently he has raised the bogey of national security and also put forward the government position that the Rafael aircraft was bought at a very low price compared to what was supplied to other nations and that continuing with the case would compromise our position and strengthen our enemy's hands. These are typical of beating around the bush scenarios which the AG and the government should desist from using in their defence. Plainly put they are just stalling so as to refuse providing the information. Consider the plea of national security, everything about the Rafael deal is in the public domain, the question only is whether due process was followed in reducing the requirements from 126 to 36 and was the unit price for the 36 higher than that of the 126 and if so, by how much. If the price was higher for the 36 then was due process again followed for approving the escalation. No one is asking the details of the armaments loaded onto the aircraft or any other strategic details which will compromise national security. Then again if the Rafael price is the lowest for India compared to other nations then we should declare it proudly as an achievement. The party that should be worried with the low price exposure is Dassault, the manufacturers of the Rafael. The other thing is about the 'offset partner' for Dassault on the Rafael deal. Granted for the time being that it was Dassault and that our PM had nothing to do with it, in selecting the Anil Ambani Co. as the 'offset partner'. But the least that the government could have done in this matter is placed on record their objections for Dassault to have chosen a novice or 'wet behind the ears' operator. The way the government has been projecting the great import of the Rafael acquisition to our defence forces, the least they could have done is ensured that we have a competent and well equipped partner for the offset deal. Concluding, there seems to be something wrong with the way the Rafael deal was amended and right now it is smelling to high heaven mostly because of the government's intransigence in declaring the facts correctly. One can also maybe say that the stonewalling stems from a somewhat puckish and childish attitude which plays out that if you persistently ask for the information, I will refuse to give it. Maybe the government would have published a White Paper on the Rafael deal if the Opposition had not gone hammer and tongs at it. This statement is made in the spirit of cricket, where the benefit of doubt goes to the batsman.
The Mahagathbandhan Is Getting Unstuck
It is unfortunate that the strategy to consolidate the anti-BJP vote has started crumbling already. The seeds of this debacle was sown at the time when the Congress did well in MP, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan in the last Assembly elections and was able to form the government. But no sooner did this happen that particularly in MP Mayawati came with the accusation that the BSP had been slighted. An affront is a big deal for a person like Mayawati who carried it to UP and convinced the SP to keep the Congress out of the poll equations, not that Akhilesh was unwilling. Mayawati has twisted the knife deeper into the Alliance with theCongress by stating that expel should not read too much into the Congress statement that it has left 7 seats in UP for the BSP & the SP. She has clarified that there is no alliance and that the BSP wants no truck with the Congress. Thus with the Congress in the wilderness in UP, Rahul Gandhi decided to play his wild card by asking sister, Priyanka to take the plunge. She was more than willing what with the enforcement agencies breathing down her husband, Robert Vadra's neck. The political foray could buy her some insulation from the law enforcement agencies though not so much for her husband, though Vadra himself has made a comment lately that he may not be unwilling to join politics. Thus with Priyanka claiming that she is not in the electoral fray, it may not be surprising that we see Vadra's name in the last Congress list of candidates and Priyanka in time opting to enter the Rajya Sabha. As for the Mahagathbandhan in spite of the show at the rallies called by the TMC in Kolkata and Delhi it was seen getting unstuck, one thought only in the States where there were Prime ministerial aspirants like Mamta Banerjee and Mayawati. But it is coming apart almost everywhere except maybe Karnataka. The Congress' alliance with the CPM has fizzled out after a deal had been brokered at the highest level of both parties for West Bengal. This happened because the State unit of the Congress wanted to go it alone which was the story again with Delhi where Sheila Dixit refused anything to do with the AAP and decided to fight all 7 seats on the Congress' own steam. So all the talk and bravado aside, the Mahagathbandhan seems to be fizzling out as a firework at a wet Diwali. But without the gathbandhan it will be difficult to consolidate the anti-BJP vote and the Opposition is kind of ceding the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to the BJP and the NDA combine which will ride the decisive nationalism wave created by the Pulwama and Balakot incidents.
Indo-Pak Talks At The Time Of Elections?
Pakistan's position after the Pulwama attack has become very nebulous since terror is one thing on which most nations particularly those of the West are unified and Pakistan has been left only with the support of China. Thus on the one hand Pakistan has to assuage the sentiments of the West and on the other hand steer its economy through difficult waters what with the country being on IMF aid and with the chance of economic collapse if the aid is suddenly withdrawn. Though the Muslim countries particularly Saudi Arabia are staunch friends Pakistan needs to appear to be on the right side with most Western countries. Moreover, with Imran Khan being in his first term of office as Prime Minister he would not want any untoward issues impacting the country and in that context we need to see his overture for talks with us after the Pulwama attack, but more on this latter aspect later. Therefore we need not read too much into Pakistan's actions like taking over the JuD's HQ, putting some of the senior cadre of the JuD under house arrest etc. These are cosmetic measures at which Pakistan are past masters having played around with the US since the Taliban emerged in Afghanistan. They continue to do that with the US in a hate-hate-love-love relationship even now in the context of pulling out the US troops out of Afghanistan. So we should not assume that all the noises being made by the US are what they mean since they can retract their position any time and particularly with Donald Trump whose foreign policy is more here and now but gone the next moment. As for Imran Khan's offer for talks one thinks we should take it and not insist too much on verifiable action against terror agents within Pakistan. Talks in the time of terror is a good thing since Imran Khan as said earlier being in his first term needs to show to his nation some achievements and India could play along for what it is worth. This is called the nouveau approach just like when Narendra Modi dropped in for a 'chai pe charcha' with the then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif though nothing came out of it, we could see how serious Imran is. But his outreach is negated somewhat by the contradictions that post-Pulwama has brought though Imran was talking peace, the shelling across the LoC was continuing if not intensified with many civilian deaths resulting. But you have to give it to Imran for releasing the captured Indian pilot Abhinandan very quickly and as promised. There was no vacillating in Imran's decision and his offer was direct and carried through expeditiously. There was no need for Imran to release Abhinandan so quickly whether by the Geneva Convention or the bilateral treaty since PoW's are released at the cessation of hostilities. One could say that Imran was not interested in escalating the conflict but for the botched air strike and maybe with no major escalation of hostilities planned was the reason that prompted Imran to release Abhinandan. It definitely got him brownie points not only in India but across the world. India has done well in the context of the Pulwama attack to mobilise international opinion and support but true to India's time honoured approach to beat around the bush and complain to everyone in the community and get cold fingers when it comes to directly talk to the opposite party, is something that needs to be changed. India recognises that the Kashmir problem cannot be solved militarily and it also refuses mediation. So it is only through negotiation that any attempt can be made to find a solution then what is wrong with going back to talks with Pakistan. Granted that in the past many efforts have been made which have regularly been exploited by Pakistan to continue fomenting terror within India and sponsor terror attacks but one thinks that Imran Khan's initiative should be taken up and talks started. But the major impediment to talks could be whether you can have talks in the time of elections since post May 23, 2019 things could change or remain the same. So we will have to see what happens as the Indian summer runs out.
Who Will Get The Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow?
The election schedules have been announced and May 23, 2019 is the D-day or Democracy Day which will determine whether Narendra Modi will get his craving satisfied of obtaining a 2nd term as the Prime Minister of India. As things go the writing on the wall earlier to Pulwama was a bit dicey with the BJP & NDA unlikely to get a majority but now with the nationalism issue being whipped up in the wake of the terror attack the BJP/NDA combine may just about tip the scales. But nonetheless the BJP/NDA seat count in the Lok Sabha may still not cross 245. We will see the campaign trail becoming shriller and shriller as the summer starts settling in across India. Already the ad campaigns in the newspapers have been seen which are tall on claims but short on credibility. The lie to this was explained by the senior leaders of the BJP like Amit Shah who had said that at election times they say things which they rarely mean and Nitin Gadkari recently said that the BJP had not expected to win the 2014 elections and that is why Narendra Modi had promised to transfer Rs. 15 Lakhs into each citizen's bank account after bringing back black money that was stashed abroad. The main issues a stuttering economy, creation of jobs and farmers problems are tended to be avoided and in fact hidden so that no one brings it up. But with these issues hurting the people, they will not be forgotten come voting time. One cannot disagree that this government fights shy of taking decisions. Like in the instance of the air strikes against Pakistan post the Pulwama blast. It has created a political uproar in India which had happened even earlier after the army's surgical strike. The reasons for this are obvious. The first thing is that it is a new toy in the hands of the incumbent government and they are thrilled with it. The second thing is that such political will in military action was not shown earlier since 1971 when Indira Gandhi asked the army to move into erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. But this bravado may be misplaced and that of the uneducated, the ill informed and those who cannot anticipate the repercussions of their actions. We have seen this in the case of the Demonetisation and GST implementation exercises and also in the mission to push card use in place of cash without having the infrastructure for it. These have led to massive dislocation in people's lives across the nation which people may not forget easily. Then there is the tendency to hide information that is inconvenient to them like the recent jobs report indicating joblessness to be at a four decade high. The job issue is what affects people directly and it is foolish to hide it. The people will perceive it as if they are being mocked. This is not the first time and we have seen this in the past with the economic indices and then the GDP figures where there has been a tendency to manage the figures to show the present government in a good light. This overeagerness to hide the truth may be another reason for the people shying away from the present dispensation. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah and in fact the entire BJP top leadership are being considered as inveterate liars and to consume anything that they say with a large pinch of salt. Then there are the relatively lesser issues of browbeating the people and the restriction of freedom of speech and other aspects of life which may not be as much election issues. But all in all the next 70 days until May 23, 2019 promises to be a rollicking time for the people of India and to see who gets the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and to feed from it for the next 5 years.
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