Sunday, March 31, 2019

Vox Populi Issue 275

                                                            VOX POPULI
                                                                        by
                                                                  S Kamat 
                                                                        as
                                                                Aam Admi
                                           Issue: 275                      Date: 01.04.2019
                    Visit: skamat.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com
Contents:       
1. Modi The Narcissist Should Be Pulled Up By The Election Commission: ASAT 
    Announcement & The Election Code of Conduct 
2. Ashwin 'Mankading' Buttler
3. Chartered Accountants Should Stick To Their Business
     

         Modi The Narcissist Should Be Pulled Up By The Election Commission: 
                   ASAT Announcement & The Election Code of Conduct 

If Narendra Modi is pulled up by the Election Commission for having violated the Election Code Of Conduct by going on national radio and television to announce India's newly acquired capability to take down enemy satellites, then he will have his acolyte and captive advocate Arun Jaitley spring up to his defence and bring up a jurisdictional issue that the Code Of Conduct is not applicable in outer space and thus our eminent PM will again go scot free. Modi is a complete narcissist and cannot avoid the media or the opportunity to have his photo put out since it has come out that Railway tickets and Air India boarding cards were being issued with his photos. This offence has reached the Election Commission and though the boarding cards have been scuffed clean of the PM's pics, we are not yet aware of the action taken by the Railways. It is said that the biopic on Narendra Modi scheduled for a release on 12 April 2019 has been preponed for 5 April 2019 considering the first date of polling for the Lok Sabha polls is 11 April 2019. All this seems to be orchestrated even down to the shooting down of a satellite in outer space just to give Narendra Modi an opportunity to cock a snook at the system and show his thumb to his critics. The capability that India has acquired to shoot down a satellite in outer space is a great achievement by our defence and space scientists and is more a device to be used when we are at war and could have been announced by a departmental press release and there was no need for the PM to appear on national radio and television. Being the head of government the least that Narendra Modi can do is to follow the Election Code Of Conduct and set an example for others to emulate him. 

In the context of the ASAT - the anti-satellite technology that India has achieved with its own resources, it is disappointing to hear Arun Jaitley once again trying to collect brownie points for this BJP government by claiming that the earlier government had pushed back the development of this technology and it was their government that revived the development. While this is commendable, one needs to ask whether there is any particular development or initiative that this BJP government has taken up on their own and which it can claim credit for except for the misguided Demonetisation and implementation of GST programs and the shabby execution of both. For almost each and every program the BJP has been critical of previous governments without coming out with any novel programs of their own while it has with alacrity adopted some of the flagship programs of the past like MNREGA, Aadhaar etc. There has also not been a single program that has been put through by the present government without confusion and causing pain and trauma to citizens. As for the ASAT while it is a signal achievement for our scientific community, one needs to de-emphasise its necessity even now as also a decade ago since there are more pressing and urgent priorities for the country. Even now its announcement by the PM with its associated drama on World Theater Day was essentially to divert the attention of the people from more pressing issues affecting their lives. It was thus an abject attempt to sway the people’s votes. Also it was a clear violation of the Election Code of Conduct since it is not the process or mechanism by which the announcement was made that is in question but the spirit of trying to influence the voters. For this infarction Narendra Modi deserves to be banned from the present Lok Sabha elections. 

                                              Ashwin 'Mankading' Buttler

Ashwin was well within his rights to run out or 'Mankad' Buttler. Cricket particularly the IPL has become a very competitive game with high stakes and everyone has to play by the rules. There is nothing like the spirit of the game anymore and at worst could apply for the 5-day Tests and definitely not for the T-20 format. As for Buttler he seems to be making a habit of getting Mankaded and the present incident is a timely lesson for him. Postscript: One wonders if any batsman from India, Sri Lanka, West Indies, Bangladesh or Pakistan had been run out in the same manner whether there would be such outrage? The MCC after first supporting Ashwin in the incident is understood to be reconsidering its position. There is another thing that we need to address regarding such runouts and that is to stop using the term - Mankaded. The term only recalls the name of the great Vinoo Mankad in a denigrating form and which should stop. Maybe we could call it - creased out - to distinguish it from runouts. 

                              Chartered Accountants Should Stick To Their Business 

Recently the Chartered Accountants Association Of India took up cudgels with economists after a group of some 100 economists pointed out that the integrity and  faithfulness of India's economic figures should be protected and not subjected to random interference by the incumbent government. This is a completely out-of-turn position of the Chartered Accountants Association who one thinks should stick to their own business and not poke their noses in matters that are relatively a little away from their domain of expertise. Accountants as per their role are required to deal with figures in real time of individuals and businesses in the economy. In some of their work they have to take the help of government published figures of economic indices but one thinks that they really do not understand and appreciate how some of these figures are collated and compiled. Therefore it is unfair for them to comment on the methodology of compiling GDP and other economic figures since these figures relate to a wider domain than what normal chartered accountants are used to and generally being longer term in nature require special expertise in the interpretation and acceptance of raw data while in the process of computation. One is not saying that chartered accountants cannot do this since as individuals many of them have risen beyond their domain and headed many multinational corporations. But as an Association they need to be careful while taking a stand beyond their spheres of competence. Postscript: The new CEA - Chief Economic Advisor has recently come out with a statement that GDP figures are difficult to fudge because there are too many touch points meaning the data has to come from multiple independent sources and it would be difficult to manage all of them to give the wrong figures or in the eyes of the government 'rosy' figures. He does not seem to have realised that in the present government it is the top-down approach that works and it is not the bottom-up that is based on data collation.  The 'chaiwallah' will decide on the figure and everyone will then have to bend over backwards to justify it. He also claims 2018-19 GDP would be in the region of 7.5% when everyone else including multilateral agencies are posting it below 7%. He sees growth in the economy which many of us have missed and it must be all 'jobless' growth. Talk of performing true to character or having rosy tinted honeymoons!
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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Vox Populi Issue 274

                                                            VOX POPULI
                                                                        by
                                                                  S Kamat 
                                                                        as
                                                                Aam Admi
                                           Issue: 274                      Date: 25.03.2019
                    Visit: skamat.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com
Contents:       
1. Campaign Strategies & The Win Numbers
2. Pakistan Should Be Banned From All International Sport
3. Jet Airways Should Not Be Given A Bailout

                                             Campaign Strategies & The Win Numbers 

In the context of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and the campaigns and focusing on the principal Opposition party, the Congress, which has more of a national presence than any of the other parties in the Opposition. So with Rahul Gandhi leading the Congress snapping at the heels of the Narendra Modi led BJP-NDA combine one can give them an A in doggedness and tenacity, in quality of issues raised it is a B and for creating a pervasive atmosphere of a contest it is a C. Rahul Gandhi has shed his earlier diffidence and seems to be more confident but he needs to focus on more content when he speaks rather than concentrate on sound bytes. The last statement about the PM 'being a joke' sounds very schoolboyish and downright immature. In old conventional naval warfare, while bombarding enemy ships the most effective positioning is to get broadside or parallel to the enemy ship. Then given the large distances involved in sea the positioning of the guns becomes important like its elevation. You let off a volley and see where the shells splash in the water. If it is short then the guns are raised so that you can have the shells go behind the target ship. This also tells you that you have been able to effectively get the target in the range of your guns. And then the gunners are allowed to do their math for gun elevation and you aim for a direct hit. If you get one then you are entitled to celebrate. The lesson in this is that within your competence if you are able to zone in your target then there is a greater possibility of a direct hit. By the same analogy, if you analyse the Congress campaign you will find their shells landing far short of the target and at most the Modi led BJP-NDA combine are getting themselves splashed with water and there is no damage at all to them. Thus the Congress has to elevate their guns to do more damage. However, in contrast the BJP has been hurting the Congress at times grievously to which the Congress have rarely any rejoinders and are caught out fumbling and making pithy responses. One can say that the Congress with a long innings in the seat of government are carrying a legacy which the BJP can plunder to target them. In a sense the BJP have almost outplayed the Congress and are not so much bothered about the Opposition in their race to capture the reins of government once again. The only debacle that one can see about the BJP is what is called 'unforced errors' in tennis. It is goofing upon your play with no pressure from the opponent. And the BJP has committed many  'unforced errors' but you have to give it to them that they have recovered. However, overall with the BJP in their effort to capture the public imagination like in the 'chowkidar' machination one gets the feeling that there is a dumbing down of the political discourse.  There is also a sense of alienation where people are beginning to feel that their attention is being diverted of more pressing issues like the economy, joblessness and the hurt that was caused by the gross irresponsibility of the measures of demonetisation and the GST implementation. So all in all if the BJP does not get a majority come 23 May they will have no one else to blame but themselves. But even then my tally for the BJP is still 245 and with the NDA allies ending tantalisingly close to the halfway mark. It is thus going to be a case of so near but yet so far. 

                     Pakistan Should Be Banned From All International Sport

Pakistan had taken objection to our cricket team wearing the combat CRPF caps in the recently concluded India - Australia ODI series. This is rather sad since we are at the receiving end of terror from Pakistan and then we get lectured by them on propriety. The Indian team by showing the gesture of solidarity with our armed forces did the right thing and there is nothing wrong with it. In fact it is Pakistan who should be banned from all forms of international sport since they are not able to provide a safe environment for foreign players and teams in their country. Talking about cricket there was no need for Pakistan to be allowed to have their host matches in the UAE. If they are not able to host the matches in their country or give the confidence to international teams to play in their country then they should have been banned from the sport. Giving them the crutch of playing in another country has given Pakistan the misplaced zeal to lecture others on the whys and wherefores in the administration of the sport. The other thing is that if the de-facto host location for Pakistan is the UAE then it gives them no motivation to correct the situation in their own country and it will be only the international sport associations which will be responsible for allowing this situation to persist. So the best thing is to ban Pakistan from all international sport until they are able to correct the security situation in their own country. 
                                 Jet Airways Should Not Be Given A Bailout

In the Jet Airways crisis SBI seems to be getting over anxious in trying to keep the airline afloat. It has been making noises lately that the airline cannot be allowed to sink because the creditors have too much at stake. Though the process suggested by SBI can be termed to be technically correct since they have said that the objective is to save the airline after jettisoning Naresh Goyal. This after Goyal and Etihad being unable to bring in from their side the funding amounting to Rs. 750 crores as their share in the bailout exercise. In fact Etihad has made a comment that they want nothing to do with Jet Airways. The latest figures being put out on the funds needed by Jet Airways to come out of the crisis is Rs. 10,000 crores. This figure is in the same region of what Kingfisher Airlines was in debt for. Kingfisher Airlines even at the time it was folding up had gone to the government and had pleaded for a bailout. But then it was not given any support claiming that they needed to fend for themselves after having got themselves into a crisis. Therefore it is not understood why Jet Airways should be given a crutch bythe government and its majority owned financial institutions. On the operational side only some 40 odd planes of Jet Airways are still flying out of 119 that they own. Therefore if Jet Airways folds up, it is not going to make a great difference in the airline industry within the country since the other airlines can more than make up for the slack once the Boeing Max issues are resolved. Therefore if Jet Airways are not able to continue operations we should let them go into bankruptcy and have other airlines which are being run better to take over the business and expand in the spirit of the more efficient being given more opportunities in a truly competitive environment. The other thing is that SBI is run with public funds and cannot be allowed to spend good money on clearly bad areas. Not only that even if Jet Airways are bailed out by government owned financial institutions what guarantee do you have that in a few years down the road it will not meet the same fate as AirIndia which is a perennial sink hole for funds. That is why it is best that Jet Airways die, a consequence that they have brought upon by themselves. 
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Hi

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Vox Populi Issue 273

                                                            VOX POPULI
                                                                        by
                                                                  S Kamat 
                                                                        as
                                                                Aam Admi
                                           Issue: 273                      Date: 18.03.2019
                    Visit: skamat.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com
 
Contents:       

1.  The Rafael Case At The Supreme Court 
2.  The Mahagathbandhan Is Getting Unstuck
3.  Indo-Pak Talks At The Time Of Elections? 
4.  Who Will Get The Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow?


                                 The Rafael Case At The Supreme Court 

In the Rafael case at the Supreme Court the arguments by the Advocate General Venugopal are getting more and more hilarious. After his claim that the Rafael papers were 'stolen' from the Defence Ministry, he retracted the next day saying he used the word wrongly and what he meant was that the papers were photo-copied and presented to the court in an unauthorised manner. Subsequently he has raised the bogey of national security and also put forward the government position that the Rafael aircraft was bought at a very low price compared to what was supplied to other nations and that continuing with the case would compromise our position and strengthen our enemy's hands. These are typical of beating around the bush scenarios which the AG and the government should desist from using in their defence. Plainly put they are just stalling so as to refuse providing the information. Consider the plea of national security, everything about the Rafael deal is in the public domain, the question only is whether due process was followed in reducing the requirements from 126 to 36 and was the unit price for the 36 higher than that of the 126 and if so, by how much. If the price was higher for the 36 then was due process again followed for approving the escalation. No one is asking the details of the armaments loaded onto the aircraft or any other strategic details which will compromise national security. Then again if the Rafael price is the lowest for India compared to other nations then we should declare it proudly as an achievement. The party that should be worried with the low price exposure is Dassault, the manufacturers of the Rafael. The other thing is about the 'offset partner' for Dassault on the Rafael deal. Granted for the time being that it was Dassault and that our PM had nothing to do with it, in selecting the Anil Ambani Co. as the 'offset partner'. But the least that the government could have done in this matter is placed on record their objections for Dassault to have chosen a novice or 'wet behind the ears' operator. The way the government has been projecting the great import of the Rafael acquisition to our defence forces, the least they could have done is ensured that we have a competent and well equipped partner for the offset deal. Concluding, there seems to be something wrong with the way the Rafael deal was amended and right now it is smelling to high heaven mostly because of the government's intransigence in declaring the facts correctly. One can also maybe say that the stonewalling stems from a somewhat puckish and childish attitude which plays out that if you persistently ask for the information, I will refuse to give it. Maybe the government would have published a White Paper on the Rafael deal if the Opposition had not gone hammer and tongs at it. This statement is made in the spirit of cricket, where the benefit of doubt  goes to the batsman. 

                               The Mahagathbandhan Is Getting Unstuck

It is unfortunate that the strategy to consolidate the anti-BJP vote has started crumbling already. The seeds of this debacle was sown at the time when the Congress did well in MP, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan in the last Assembly elections and was able to form the government. But no sooner did this happen that particularly in MP Mayawati came with the accusation that the BSP had been slighted. An affront is a big deal for a person like Mayawati who carried it to UP and convinced the SP to keep the Congress out of the poll equations, not that Akhilesh was unwilling. Mayawati has twisted the knife  deeper into the Alliance with theCongress by stating that expel should not read too much into the Congress statement that it has left 7 seats in UP for the BSP & the SP. She has clarified that there is no alliance and that the BSP wants no truck with the Congress. Thus with the Congress in the wilderness in UP, Rahul Gandhi decided to play his wild card by asking sister, Priyanka to take the plunge. She was more than willing what with the enforcement agencies breathing down her husband, Robert Vadra's neck. The political foray could buy her some insulation from the law enforcement agencies though not so much for her husband, though Vadra himself has made a comment lately that he may not be unwilling to join politics. Thus with Priyanka claiming that she is not in the electoral fray, it may not be surprising that we see Vadra's name in the last Congress list of candidates and Priyanka in time opting to enter the Rajya Sabha. As for the Mahagathbandhan in spite of the show at the rallies called by the TMC in Kolkata and Delhi it was seen getting unstuck, one thought only in the States where there were Prime ministerial aspirants like Mamta Banerjee and Mayawati. But it is coming apart almost everywhere except maybe Karnataka. The Congress' alliance with the CPM has fizzled out after a deal had been brokered at the highest level of both parties for West Bengal. This happened because the State unit of the Congress wanted to go it alone which was the story again with Delhi where Sheila Dixit refused anything to do with the AAP and decided to fight all 7 seats on the Congress' own steam. So all the talk and bravado aside, the Mahagathbandhan seems to be fizzling out as a firework at a wet Diwali. But without the gathbandhan it will be difficult to consolidate the anti-BJP vote and the Opposition is kind of ceding the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to the BJP and the NDA combine which will ride the decisive nationalism wave created by the Pulwama and Balakot incidents. 

                                 Indo-Pak Talks At The Time Of Elections? 

Pakistan's position after the Pulwama attack has become very nebulous since terror is one thing on which most nations particularly those of the West are unified and Pakistan has been left only with the support of China. Thus on the one hand Pakistan has to assuage the sentiments of the West and on the other hand steer its economy through difficult waters  what with the country being on IMF aid and with the chance of economic collapse if the aid is suddenly withdrawn. Though the Muslim countries particularly Saudi Arabia are staunch friends Pakistan needs to appear to be on the right side with most Western countries. Moreover, with Imran Khan being in his first term of office as Prime Minister he would not want any untoward issues impacting the country and in that context we need to see his overture for talks with us after the Pulwama attack, but more on this latter aspect later. Therefore we need not read too much into Pakistan's actions like taking over the JuD's HQ, putting some of the senior cadre of the JuD under house arrest etc. These are cosmetic measures at which Pakistan are past masters having played around with the US since the Taliban emerged in Afghanistan. They continue to do that with the US in a hate-hate-love-love relationship even now in the context of pulling out the US troops out of Afghanistan. So we should not assume that all the noises being made by the US are what they mean since they can retract their position any time and particularly with Donald Trump whose foreign policy is more here and now but gone the next moment. As for Imran Khan's offer for talks one thinks we should take it and not insist too much on verifiable action against terror agents within Pakistan. Talks in the time of terror is a good thing since Imran Khan as said earlier being in his first term needs to show to his nation some achievements and India could play along for what it is worth. This is called the nouveau approach just like when Narendra Modi dropped in for a 'chai pe charcha' with the then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif though nothing came out of it, we could see how serious Imran is. But his outreach is negated somewhat by the contradictions that post-Pulwama has brought though Imran was talking peace, the shelling across the LoC was continuing if not intensified with many civilian deaths resulting. But you have to give it to Imran for releasing the captured Indian pilot Abhinandan very quickly and as promised. There was no vacillating in Imran's decision and his offer was direct and carried through expeditiously. There was no need for Imran to release Abhinandan so quickly whether by the Geneva Convention or the bilateral treaty since PoW's are released at the cessation of hostilities. One could say that Imran was not interested in escalating the conflict but for the botched air strike and maybe with no major escalation of hostilities planned was the reason that prompted Imran to release Abhinandan. It definitely got him brownie points not only in India but across the world. India has done well in the context of the Pulwama attack to mobilise international opinion and support but true to India's time honoured approach to beat around the bush and complain to everyone in the community and get cold fingers when it comes to directly talk to the opposite party, is something that needs to be changed. India recognises that the Kashmir problem cannot be solved militarily and it also refuses mediation. So it is only through negotiation that any attempt can be made to find a solution then what is wrong with going back to talks with Pakistan. Granted that in the past many efforts have been made which have regularly been exploited by Pakistan to continue fomenting terror within India and sponsor terror attacks but one thinks that Imran Khan's initiative should be taken up and talks started. But the major impediment to  talks could be whether you can have talks in the time of elections since post May 23, 2019 things could change or remain the same. So we will have to see what happens as the Indian summer runs out.

                   Who Will Get The Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Rainbow?

The election schedules have been announced and May 23, 2019 is the D-day or Democracy Day which will determine whether Narendra Modi will get his craving satisfied of obtaining a 2nd term as the Prime Minister of India. As things go the writing on the wall earlier to Pulwama was a bit dicey with the BJP & NDA unlikely to get a majority but now with the nationalism issue being whipped up in the wake of the terror attack the  BJP/NDA combine may just about tip the scales. But nonetheless the BJP/NDA seat count in the Lok Sabha may still not cross 245. We will see the campaign trail becoming shriller and shriller as the summer starts settling in across India. Already the ad campaigns in the newspapers have been seen which are tall on claims but short on credibility. The lie to this was explained by the senior leaders of the BJP like Amit Shah who had said that at election times they say things which they rarely mean and Nitin Gadkari recently said that the BJP had not expected to win the 2014 elections and that is why Narendra Modi had promised to transfer Rs. 15 Lakhs into each citizen's bank account after bringing back black money that was stashed abroad. The main issues a stuttering economy, creation of jobs and farmers problems are tended to be avoided and in fact hidden so that no one brings it up. But with these issues hurting the people, they will not be forgotten come voting time. One cannot disagree that this government fights shy of taking decisions. Like in the instance of the air strikes against Pakistan post the Pulwama blast. It has created a political uproar in India which had happened even earlier after the army's surgical strike. The reasons for this are obvious. The first thing is that it is a new toy in the hands of the incumbent government and they are thrilled with it. The second thing is that such political will in military action was not shown earlier since 1971 when Indira Gandhi asked the army to move into erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. But this bravado may be misplaced and that of the uneducated, the ill informed and those who cannot anticipate the repercussions of their actions. We have seen this in the case of the Demonetisation and GST implementation exercises and also in the mission to push card use in place of cash without having the infrastructure for it. These have led to massive dislocation in people's lives across the nation which people may not forget easily. Then there is the tendency to hide information that is inconvenient to them like the recent jobs report indicating joblessness to be at a four decade high. The job issue is what affects people directly and it is foolish to hide it. The people will perceive it as if they are being mocked. This is not the first time and we have seen this in the past with the economic indices and then the GDP figures where there has been a tendency to manage the figures to show the present government in a good light. This overeagerness to hide the truth may be another reason for the people shying away from the present dispensation. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah and in fact the entire BJP top leadership are being considered as inveterate liars and to consume anything that they say with a large pinch of salt. Then there are the relatively lesser issues of browbeating the people and the restriction of freedom of speech and other aspects of life which may not be as much election issues. But all in all the next 70 days until May 23, 2019 promises to be a rollicking time for the people of India and to see who gets the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and to feed from it for the next 5 years.
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Sunday, March 10, 2019

Vox Populi Issue 272

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Vox Populi Issue 271