OPinionatED

or

VOX POPULI

by

S Kamat 

as

Aam Admi

Issue: 173                   Date:  24.10.2016

skamatblog.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com

NPA’s Banks Do Not Want To Touch

There was a time in the 1960’s and 70’s when steel production in India was abysmally low and imports were difficult considering India’s bad foreign exchange position. This necessitated that the domestic steel production be allocated among users by quota. The government stepped in and set up a committee to prioritise users and thereafter apportion them steel. Steel was required by industry since India was then embarking upon industrialization and the demand for steel far outstripped supply. This was ripe for racketeers, more known as blackmarketeers in our country, to move in. Black marketing techniques were well-known but how was the precious steel to be obtained? This is where the Indian ingenuity or 'jugaad' came into play. Traders set up SSI's (Small Scale Industries) since under the government's program for industrial promotion SSI's got a priority even for steel allotment. These units were essentially a front with the majority having no production and some with no equipment and machinery to show that they intended to go into production.  These units were set up with the sole intent of obtaining steel quotas from the government. One will thus ask that when the celebrated ‘licence raj’ was at its peak, how did these units come up? They came up with connivance of the government agencies and the banks who were all bought out for a fee. The steel obtained through these quotas found itself into the blackmarket trade of steel. The same thing has prevailed now in the creation of the NPA’s with the banks by the industry where the banks have been hand in glove with the promoters or the management to provide them funds with the tacit understanding that there would be no need to repay.

It is believed that 80% of Indian industry figures in the NPA lists with various banks. This does not speak of an overall malaise in the Indian economy but a different kind of malaise in the majority of our industrial fraternity. The ownership of the promoters or the group managing most industrial units have a minority share holding. They ensconce themselves because the other stock of the unit is in the hands of institutional shareholders like LIC or GIC or similar other agencies and the rest with public. The institutional shareholders who sometimes hold more shares than the management in control of the unit rarely exercise control or show a tendency to involve themselves with management of the unit even when the unit is going downhill in financial terms. They act as ‘impartial’ observers leaving the running of the unit to the incumbent management. The remaining stock of the unit is widely dispersed among the public which is not possible to be aggregated to form any meaningful intervention by voting as a single block. Thus the management of the unit is left to its own designs on the running of the unit. It is therefore seen that a minority shareholder is in the driving seat of the unit and is committing itself to availing huge loans for which essentially they have no responsibility to pay back. This is the reason why huge loans are availed by such units in the name of expansion and which then over the years turn out to become NPA’s. Among these promoters there is a rapacious breed which create these NPA’s deliberately and when the unit goes into bankruptcy have their cohorts buy these units with the intention of stripping off their assets or with their eyes on the prime land that the unit owns which latter is of great value if it happens to be in the midst of a growing city. A case in example of such methods is what happened to the Bombay textile mills in the heart of the city which were denuded off all assets sometimes even set on fire so that the prime land could be developed.  The Supreme Court has been seized of the matter on NPA’s and was told recently by government that 57 borrowers owe banks a whopping Rs. 87,000 crores and whose individual borrowings are in excess of Rs. 500 crores. The court was also told that if the limit for individual borrowing was reduced to lower than Rs. 500 crores then the aggregate borrowing would cross Rs. 100,000 crores. All these borrowings are NPA’s which we are otherwise aware from bank books which have announced that the levels of NPA’s with both public sector and private banks exceed Rs. 200,000 crores. Here again the banks are in connivance in the generation of NPA’s and the bank management past as well as present needs to be brought to book for their irresponsible and avaricious actions.

We have in the earlier paragraphs brought out the legacy aspect of NPA’s being consistent with the practices of Indian industry and the banking system and the manner of their creation. Now let us look at the government’s action in trying to resolve this vexatious issue and why the banks are not acting with any great urgency on the matter. The practice of the banks has been to write off these NPA’s depending on the health of their balance sheets. This is the principle by which you sacrifice your present happiness to pay for past sins. However, with the economic climate not being very rosy the banks balance sheets have not been so promising so as to withstand the shocks of such large write-offs as represented by the NPA’s. Thus the NPA’s continue to exist. There is a finer issue here in the sense that only those NPA’s will be written off where an ‘arrangement’ has been worked out with the borrowing group that will speed up the process of the write-off. Sometimes these ‘arrangements’ take time to be worked out and thus the NPA’s remain in the bank books. Here again there is a principle involved and that is that for a banker a loan is like a milch cow that can be milked at any stage of its life. These comments do not intend to cast a slur on all members of the banking system but such kind of people do form a large part of the banking personnel.

The next part is how a large and difficult problem brings dividends to everyone involved. The NPA’s at a level of Rs. Rs. 200,000 crores or more is a monstrous cake which can sweeten the mouths of many. The political parties looking at these kind of numbers are literally slavering at the mouth. Thus what the present government dispensation has done is to make it easier for resolving the NPA’s by the banking system by stating that the corruption act will not be brought in etc. etc. But the bankers are reluctant to believe this since if the dispensation changes then whether the same promises will hold good is what the bankers are not sure of. Then there is the suggestion to set up a ‘bad’ bank which will take up the specific responsibility of clearing the NPA’s. This suggestion was turned down by the erstwhile RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan saying that it would not work. The problem with the ‘bad’ bank is that it takes away the responsibility of clearing the NPA’s from the bankers and which lets them off the hook. The good thing about the ‘bad’ bank’ is that it can be staffed by people who are close to the government and the present dispensation making sure that all their fingers will be in the pie while clearing the NPA’s. This is how the NPA cookie grumbles where everyone particularly the bankers are looking the other way when asked to clear the mess, waiting and watching for the government's next move.

                                                  Pak Surgical Strikes Turn Inwards

Narendra Modi and his Ministers have been seeing more action than our brave soldiers saw during the surgical strike in Pakistan recently. They  have been milking every last drop of political mileage from the bold and decisive action. That most political parties after initial congratulations on the strike resorted to critiquing it was par for the course for those familiar with the way things happen in India. But some of the parties going to the extent of seeking proof of the attack was the most disappointing. Our politicians should at least have the maturity that on matters of national security that they can go this far and no further. We have to show a single and united face to the enemy at such times and going to the extent of doubting whether the surgical strike at all took place is clearly undermining the morale of our armed forces. However, one does hope that we have seen the last of these reactions which comment is made with no certainty. What the incumbent government did, in later showing a select group of MP's the edited videos of the surgical strikes was good. In fact, it is best that a committee of Parliamentarians cutting across party lines is constituted which can be taken into confidence after any major military action occurs by us or against us like a Defence Committee on the lines of the Senate Committees in the US whose members in turn will apprise their respective parties of the details of the action. This committee can also on a regular basis  be briefed on the security situation in our surroundings and the manner that we propose to deal with likely emerging scenarios and our extent of preparedness to pre-empt, prevent and combat any threats. This will then hopefully reduce the decibels of needless statements in the media which does the national image no good. 

                                                    Cultural Relations With Pakistan

The controversy about Pakistani actors figuring in Bollywood films should be put to rest with the simple resolution that our film industry should support our actors and no foreign actor, be it Pakistan or any other nationality, used regularly in our films unless it is any special expertise that is required in one or the other film. Here again every effort should be made to see if we can get local talent to fit into this requirement and only if unavailable we should take foreigners. This comment is not limited to actors but to any foreigners working in any part of the film's production. We take foreigners in our films for irrelevant and extraneous reasons which practice should be brought to an end. However, what we did at the MAMI International Film Festival at Mumbai recently in not showing an old Pakistani film is wrong. The premise here is that we should encourage participation in an international event in India of all countries, including Pakistan as long they meet the standards, since the diversity and quality of the event is enhanced. This also enables India to show its equitable and humane face. This basis can be used to have Pakistani participation in other areas of the arts and culture like music etc. But we should put a stop to bilateral events between our two countries and sponsored events that brings a Pakistani artiste to India for concerts or performances until the relations between the countries 'normalise'. Given the Pakistani continued aggressive and intransigent position against India we should firmly administer an arm's length position from our side while at the same time have Pakistan understand this. The problem has been that Pakistan and its people, the artistic community that we are talking about here, have for long taken it for granted about India's nicety and have always taken advantage of it. It is time that they understood otherwise. If we do this then you will slowly see the true colours of the Pakistani artistes emerge when the majority of them will talk about India in the same language that the LET of the Jaish-e-Muhammed talk about us. That is the two-facedness of the Pakistani people which we should be wary of. Concluding, however, what happened with Karan Johar's film release after the MNS had threatened to stop it, was nothing short of blackmail. The film and its cast was commenced much before the present explosion of sentiment against Pakistan and should have been allowed for normal release. The fact that the Maharasthra CM brokered the peace is another embarrassment for the BJP. But Raj Thackeray has scored valuable political points in the entire matter scoring brownie points over his cousin, Udhav of the Shiv Sena.

******************************

OPinionatED

or

VOX POPULI

by

S Kamat as

Aam Admi

Issue: 172          Date:  17.10.2016

skamatblog.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com

Contents:

1.       Backward Class, Minority Status & The Quota System

2.       Trump In Self-Destruct Mode

3.      Kashmir Going The Palestine Way

Backward Class, Minority Status & The Quota System

With the Maratha agitation moving from city to city and region to region in Maharasthra it is increasingly important that we review the backward class issue which is the single most important demand of the agitating Marathas. It is quite unusual that the Marathas, the ruling class whose domain some centuries ago extended almost across the whole of India should seek status of a backward class. They ruled over the people to whom they are going today with a begging bowl seeking concessions and protection. It is not only the Marathas but the Kshatriya community from other States also considered the ruling class in the past had been clamouring for the same status.

In fact the term is becoming quite popular now what with, the Jews once a money-lending class and considered normally quite rich along with the Parsis – another educated and generally financially comfortable community, all seeking to be included in it. Even in some States the Brahmins have been asking to be given backward class. Manu must be shivering in his grave or his ashes must be doing the whirling dervish dance upon hearing of this! For some of us it is difficult to fathom the reasons behind such pleas. 

What do these communities hope to achieve by getting backward class status? Is it quota for jobs, admissions to educational institutions or for starting their own colleges or for any other purpose? Normally in a society people aspire to elevate their status both in terms of prestige and wealth but somehow Indian society seems to be going the other way where people are clamouring to be equated with the lesser privileged and weaker class of society for whom the backward class status was conceived.  In a sense the aspirations pyramid of the Indian people seems to have been inverted. In fact even within the backward class category there is competition to be named as low as they can get in the scale, meaning an OBC (Other Backward Class) wants to be re-categorised as SC (Scheduled Caste) and sometimes the SC wants to be classified as ST (Scheduled Tribe). Thus every community wants to go as low down the scale as they can get.

Where the backward class status was brought into force to provide opportunities to the weaker sections of our society to improve themselves by providing reservations in admissions to educational institutions and thereafter jobs in government, today these same people are alarmed with the demands of almost all communities around them seeking the same status. It is not that the protected sections of our community have all been able to better themselves because of reservation given to the minorities. The fact that after almost 70 years of India’s independence we are still continuing with reservations for backward class communities raises the question whether this policy has at all worked or not. With every community seeking backward class status then this status will automatically get eliminated because by then everyone would have belonged to a ‘backward class’.

Recognising these trends and the fact that reservation for the backward classes has not worked, we should abolish all quotas. But even then considering that as a society we need to be humane and encouraging, there is a need to introduce reservations for the economically weaker sections. These are people who are not financially well off to provide for themselves and/or not give the opportunities to their children to better themselves. This categorisation can easily be done on the basis of income and whether they are in the Income Tax category or not. These concessions will be time-bound meaning for the duration of the education course or for a period of 5 years and after that the particular concession would lapse. It will be given in the monetary form like exemption of fees at edicational institutions or whatever. There would be other monetary benefits provided to people irrespective of their age for basic subsistence like a dole or social security for a limited period of 3 or 5 years except for senior citizens with no income it could go for longer terms or until they are alive. However, one would need to apply for this facility. There would be no quotas for jobs or seats in college which would be done purely on the merit of the candidate. This method would incentivize people to strive to better themselves but at the same time have society lend a helping hand to them when in need.

However, a note of caution needs to be struck here. This kind of system will not see the light of day in free India in the present times because every single party would oppose it. The reason for this is that every political party has a vested interest in continuing with quotas and backward class status and it is with this tool that they create vote banks that help them in their elections. Like it is said that sometimes we ourselves are our greatest enemies. The politicians while paying lip service to the betterment of the backward classes work actively to ensure that these same people remain backward, illiterate and ignorant so that they remain continually dependent on the politicians. This is unfortunately the single biggest drawback of our democratic system. But it is time that we broke this Gordian knot and did away entirely with reservations and quota system in our society. 

Trump In Self-Destruct Mode

Donald Trump is seeing a systematic and calculated attack to diminish him in the eyes of the American people. It is in the nature of a character assassination and one must say not without a large part of it being contributed by the man himself. Credit needs to be given to Hilary Clinton for orchestrating this grievous barrage against Donald Trump on her way to the US Presidency. Not only that Trump has been walking into this trap and increasing the frequency of his statements which tend to get him more entangled in the swamp of sex and sleaze that is being spread around him. The attacks on Donald Trump are a challenge to him and the manner in which he handles them will determine his performance in the elections next month and his ability to be the US President. If he surmounts these challenges it will be a credit to his campaign which one has to say at this present moment in tatters. But given Donald Trump's present form chances of any optimistic outcome for him are rather remote. But the points in favour of Trump in these personal attacks are the allegations of groping etc. are unverifiable and from women who themselves are suspect and lack credibility. These incidents have been quite some time  in the past and can be easily discredited. Trump can claim that he has changed since those times. Many a hopeful as well as incumbent US President have successfully used that argument. As for Donald Trump not paying income tax because he had lawful deductions from his business losses. This is a common enough practice even in the US to take advantage of every deduction that a citizen is eligible for in saving personal taxes and as Donald Trump himself put it - it is smart to do so. Nothing wrong with that but you have to project it right. But in spite of these concessions that one could possibly give Donald Trump, his campaign has been consistently going downhill as if he is riding a roller coaster on the downward spiral that is running out of control. The other analogy with regard to the Trump campaign is that of a terrorist wearing a bomb belt bent upon blowing himself up before Nov 2016.

Kashmir Going The Palestine Way

We have another youth die in Kashmir last week because of pellet gun injuries. This death adds to a long list of those who died because of the use of pellet guns by the security forces in the troubled State. Apart from the fatalities many have lost their eyes because of pellet injuries. There was a time when the police and paramilitary forces were trained to shoot below the waist particularly at the legs at times of strife and when crowd control was to be achieved. However, these days looking at the kind of injuries that agitationists are getting, one would believe that the instructions are – Shoot to Kill. This comment is not necessarily valid for only Kashmir but is true across the country where police have to resort to firing to control law and order disruptions. Otherwise how is possible for so many in Kashmir to get injuries from pellets on their faces and backs. Thus the first thing that our higher-ups in the Home Ministry and the police and paramilitary establishment is to train their personnel on the ground to shoot only when it is absolutely necessary and then only to contain. The shooting must not be to inflict maximum damage since after all we are dealing with human beings and that too our own people who for reasons best known to them have gone astray and/or have had to take to the streets with no alternative option.

The injuries and fatalities caused by the pellet guns have further alienated and not the least because the police top brass and the Home Ministry are talking in different voices.  To emphasise this point, Rajnath Singh at the height of the present agitation after the death of Burhan Wani and when he went to meet the people there said that the pellet guns would be withdrawn and alternate crowd control devices like chili or stink bombs would be used. Promptly a couple of days later the DG CRPF said that they would continue to use pellet guns and there was no alternative to that. For God’s sake, co-ordinate your statements, gentlemen! The public anger by such ham-handed action gets raised to a higher pitch from which it is difficult to bring it down.

As it is if one sees pictures on TV of the youth and children in Kashmir throwing stones at the security forces one is reminded of the Palestinian people fighting for their rights in Israel. There is an eerie analogy between the two cases, both the Palestine and Kashmir issues commenced at around the same time and have been simmering for six decades or more with no solution in sight. However, there is an essential difference and that is the Palestinians were fighting for their homeland while here the Kashmiris are our own people even though they may think different. But we have to make serious steps and somewhat out-of-the-box initiatives to win over the hearts and minds of the Kashmiri people particularly the youth who seem to be at the forefront of the agitation. This would be to take off all security personnel from the streets of Kashmir, withdraw the draconian AFSPA act which gives the Army overriding powers and encourage efforts in consonance with the local elected government of Mehbooba Mufti to bring in normalcy. The Army can be stacked near the LOC and the official border with Pakistan to prevent infiltration of terrorists. This will be the only method possibly to prevent Kashmir sliding down the Palestine way.  

***************************

OPinionatED

or

VOX POPULI

by

Aam Admi

Issue: 171                   Date:  10.10.2016

skamatblog.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com

Contents:

1.      Dealing With Pakistan

2.      Indian Railways Needs To Change Tack & Tracks

3.      The US Presidential Elections

Dealing With Pakistan

The manner that we have been dealing with Pakistan post-Uri attack and even earlier is somewhat odd and clearly illogical. In size terms by population Pakistan is probably just about 15% of India, in geographical terms it is just a sliver torn off India. Thus the attention that we pay to that country across our media and also in terms of mindshare of our people, is grossly disproportionate and much more than what Pakistan deserves. Figuratively speaking Pakistan is just an ant on the Indian elephant's back and should be treated as such. However one cannot comprehend why we make a big deal of what Pakistan says or does. Recognised that we have a shared contentious history going back some six decades or more about Kashmir which is a pusurating sore. Strategically also the fact that Pakistan is in possession of nuclear bombs and in fact may be leading India in terms of tactical nuclear weapons, demands that we deal with them with caution. We also need to understand that the country Pakistan was born out of the trauma of Partition and this is the trauma that it has been fighting these last six decades or more.

Thus if you look at Pakistan’s role in international circles over this period it has to do with strife and discord. Allying with the US in the Cold War years it was involved in Afghanistan so that America could have an access into the old USSR. That is how it got involved in a proxy war, for America, with the Russians who had moved into Afghanistan a few years later. This cemented Pakistan’s presence in Afghanistan overseeing, in a manner of speaking, the transition from first the monarchy to a temporary government until the Taliban and the Al Qaeda took over the country in 2010 and then it was up to Karzai put Pakistan’s ISI in their place upon taking up the office of the President of Afghanistan. This involvement in low intensity war served Pakistan two-fold. First an easy access to arms and second, the experience to continue the same proxy war in Kashmir under the pretext of supporting a ‘freedom’ struggle.

The other thing is that as a nation Pakistan has no real reason for its existence. It is by creating problems for others that it justifies its existence.  Thus with India its Kashmir and which Pakistan has been carefully nurturing for close to six decades now. They did the same thing with successively the Taliban, Al Qaeda and now ISIS supporting these terror groups in their infancy which then spread terrorism around the world. Any major terrorist strike anywhere in the world be it 9/11 or any other has had a Pakistani involved or has its origins in Pakistan or with some link to Pakistan. And through all this Pakistan claims that it is a victim of terrorism little realizing that if you play with terror it is only a matter of time before it strikes back to you. Actually this position for Pakistan is a ploy to see3k sympathy. The world has realized this and now know that the Pakistan government and its agencies are complicit with terror. This has been partly achieved with India’s diplomatic efforts which have to a great extent cornered Pakistan as a safe haven for terror and an active instigator when it comes to initiating terror in Kashmir and India.

In these circumstances it is best that India does not fall into the trap of reacting to what Pakistan says since it is again a ruse to draw India out and have the focus of world opinion back on itself.  This is also with a hope that in India’s reaction it may trip itself and give Pakistan an opportunity to say – I told you so. In most statements or announcements that come from Pakistan we need to take it with a large pinch of salt since it has been found more often than not that they tend to be more liberal with the truth and rarely say what they actually mean.

Thus the best method for India is to ignore Pakistan’s utterances but continue the diplomatic initiatives in international circles to try and get them named as a ‘terror haven’ which will leave them hobbled in taking any further action. In the event that Pakistan or its agencies initiates or participates in any attacks on Indian soil like Pathankot or Uri, we should respond with the principle that if you give us a bloody nose, we will give you a bloody face. The more India tends to respond to Pakistan in the media, it elevates the position of Pakistan and implies that they are of an equal status to India. The strategy therefore is to keep Pakistan in its place.

Indian Railways Needs To Change Tack & Tracks

Just last month an elderly lady was thrown onto the tracks near Dhanbad station when she was accosted by a man who had entered the sleeper compartment in the early hours of the morning and was bent upon snatching a bag that the lady had wound around her arm. In the attack which the lady resisted she was pulled out of the train compartment even before her cries for help   woke up her co-passengers from sleep. Luckily the lady got off with minor injuries. Then just a couple of weeks back we had armed dacoits attacking three groups of passengers in succession at the outer signal of Kanpur station. Then last week another lady complained that on the train her handbag was gnawed through by rats. There have been many complaints about rats infesting the compartments near the pantry cars of most trains and passengers afraid to sleep for fear of their getting bit. There was a time with the Indian Railways when the sleeper coaches were considered safe because they would be locked down in the night.  There would be an attendant or ticket inspector to help people getting in or out of the train at wayside stations during the night. Nothing like that happens now and the security of passengers is neglected to the extent that it is considered unsafe to travel in sleeper coaches. If you happen to travel by train you will notice it is standard practice of passengers to carry their own chain and lock to secure their baggage to any fixture in the coach. This was rarely done in the past. As for hygiene and rat infestation, if you peep into any of the pantry cars on trains you will never have any food on the train for the rest of your life. But instead of attending to these basic issues of safety, security and hygiene, the Indian Railways are concentrating on ultra-fast trains, TALGO coaches, flexible pricing and introduction of new trains with more amenities in the interest of increasing their revenue earnings from passenger traffic. The emphasis is clearly wrong since unless the basic issues as above are not tackled it will not be long before the new trains go the same way as the rest of the trains on the Indian Railways now. The Railway Minister, Suresh Prabhu need to change the emphasis and bring back the service orientation of the Indian Railways to serve the common citizen rather than try to convert it to a high flying transportation option competing with airlines. For this the aam admin would be forever grateful. 

The US Presidential Elections

It is well-known that the worst of America comes out at the time of the US Presidential elections. In the final lap of the 2016 elections with Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton throwing mud at each other, more by the former than the latter, the contest is running true to form. But if one does an objective analysis of the candidates and the muck that they have been throwing at each other during the election campaign, the conclusion that emerges is that the present elections have possibly the most unsuitable candidates in general of the last few US Presidential elections since Richard Nixon was elected to the Oval Office. Hilary Clinton is coming out as the better of the two worst candidates leaving the American people no choice so to speak. But is she fit for the Presidency is the question that must be dogging many minds in the US? Coming as the first serious woman candidate for the US Presidency she arrives with the persuasive argument of the need to create more history on the back of the first black US President demitting office. This argument has become all the more compelling now with Donald Trump's utterances and antics that clearly make him unfit to become the President of the USA. On top of some of Donald Trump's unusual opinions, he has exhibited a shockingly ignorant position on foreign policy and international matters which has many doubting his sanity. The shallowness of his public statements and his reactions to cast blame and accuse others are some of the attributes that do no good for his seeking the credentials to be the next President of the USA. Lately with even the GOP leaders backing away from Trump’s candidature one must seriously doubt the decision-making process of the Republican party for having endorsed Trump as the party’s Presidential candidate after initial doubts and then just about four weeks prior to the elections pulling back its support. As for Hilary Clinton one must say she has been making the right noises and having used her pedigree of having been First Lady in the White House and then the first woman Secretary of State of the USA, she has come across as a relatively better shining light fit to become the next US President. But even then serious doubts remain on her credibility to be liberal with the truth in the matter of coming out clearly on the private server and email issue, the inability of sometimes to control her flaming temper which it is said that even Bill Clinton remains in fear of and the last thing which just came up last month was her health issue. For fear of being branded anti-feminist one must state that in both US Presidential debates she did not seem to come off as President material. With the two Presidential candidates likely to having serious performance issues, more Trump than Clinton, the focus needs to shift to the Vice Presidential candidates. The chances of Donald Trump winning are a long shot but even if he does we need to consider an outside chance at possibly an impeachment process into his second term when his VP will be expected to sit in the Oval office. One must say that Mike Pence, though still very much an unknown factor, has acquitted himself creditably in the VP debate and one can take comfort in his level headedness in contrast to Trump’s uninhibited and uncontrolled flamboyance. As for the chance of Hilary Clinton seeing health issues into her first term as President if she wins it, which is what is most likely to happen, it will be Tim Kaine who will take over. Kaine seems to fit in like a glove in the long list of unassuming US Vice Presidents and can be expected to hold the fort. But come December 2016 it is not only the USA but also the world which will be seeing uncertain times what with the most powerful democracy in the world going through a change of guard.

**********************************

OPinionatED

or

VOX POPULI

by

Aam Admi

Issue: 170                 Date:  03.10.2016

skamatblog.blogspot.com or aamadmivoices.blogspot.com

Contents:

1.      The Way Forward In Kashmir

2.       Congress Party Struggling To Remain Relevant

3.      The Wrong Emphasis On Poverty Alleviation & Economic Growth

The Way Forward In Kashmir

We need to look at how Kashmir has been handled since the Modi-led BJP government came to power in the Centre. In an attempt to keep the Congress - National Conference at bay the BJP had decided to go in for an opportunistic alliance with the PDP to form the government in Kashmir. There was no ideological basis for the alliance and with the few seats that the BJP get in Jammu and looking at the PDP strength in the Valley a marriage of convenience was hurriedly cobbled up. The squabbling between the two partners post-elections continued though it did not reach a breaking point since both the parties realised that they had more to lose in separating than in staying together.  Then the PDP supremo, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed died and that event really set the cat among the pigeons for the alliance and by extension into Kashmir. Mehbooba Mufti anointed successor to lead the PDP by Mufti Saheb himself had cold feet on two issues. The first was sitting on the CM's chair and putting the crown of thorns on her head since being CM of Kashmir was nobed of roses. The second was the alliance with the BJP. Thus after an extended period of dilly-dallying explained away as the time of mourning that Mehbooba Mufti needed, she accepted the challenge of becoming the first woman Chief Minister of Kashmir.

The time between Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's death and Mehbooba Mufti accepting to become the Chief Minister was when Kashmir had essentially no government. This interregnum after a relatively extended period of peace was what was taken advantage of by the separatists to push through their agenda and foment local unrest and encourage terrorist activity from across the border. Thus Mehbooba Mufti had from almost Day 1 to face problems relating to either local law and order incidents involving stoning or cross-border terrorist activity and the continued over-reaction of the army and para-military forces in handling such activity. It was not settled times in Kashmir and the burning fuse was lit when Burhan Wani was killed in the encounter and the State immediately went up in flames thereafter. Close to a hundred days of disturbances followed with almost the same number of Kashmiris killed in this period and the unrest leading to disarray in the lives of innocent citizens. Is this what the BJP calls Kashmir being an integral part of India? Does Kashmir not deserve the calm and peace that other Indian citizens largely enjoy? Do the Kashmiri not deserve to go to schools and the youth to colleges in the pursuit of a better life? Kashmir was near normal almost six months ago when tourists had again started to return. But then what happened thereafter? Does the BJP have an answer to this question having been part of the government in Kashmir? Does the BJP not have a responsibility therefore by virtue of being a part of the government to ensure normalcy as close as it is possible for the Kashmiris to go about their day to day lives?

Let us step back a moment to almost two years ago when Narendra Modi took over the reins of government with the BJP getting an astounding absolute majority. This should have encouraged Modi and his government to try and resolve the problems in Kashmir and bring some normalcy to the State. If based on some of his utterances lately after meetings with Mehbooba Mufti and if he intends to get down to brass tacks then he has to follow some basic general principles. As it is known Kashmir has been a festering problem defying a solution because of the machinations of the separatists residing in the State, the activities of terrorists from across the border in Pakistan and PoK with quite some assistance from local people and finally the partly brainwashed local population who feel that India has given them a raw deal and schizophrenically inclined to independence for Kashmir or to be aligned with Pakistan. The situation has got further complicated with some insensitive and intransigent reactions of our armed forces both military and paramilitary based in Kashmir categorised as human rights excesses by the local population and desirable action to ensure law and order by the armed forces. 

Thus in this given situation any new government taking guard at the Centre should have accorded top priority to resolving the Kashmir tangle in winning over the hearts and minds of the local population. This more so when it ventured to hold the reins of government in the State albeit jointly with the PDP. However, strangely the BJP including its top brass refused to accept this responsibility and tended to ignore the reality in Kashmir and preferred to play second fiddle to the PDP in the government. Even Narendra Modi must accept the blame for not giving enough attention to Kashmir being completely obsessed with his foreign trips and when he fleetingly did with great immaturity it was to drop in for a cup of 'chai' with Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan. The ingenuous approach that Modi adopted to one would assume to break the ice that had settled more thickly than at the Arctic circle in the 69 years of Indo-Pak relations because of Kashmir has been proven now to be ill-conceived if not completely immature. Where Modi should have concentrated on the people of Kashmir he went across the border to find a solution to a problem of what he calls of his own people and an integral part of India. 

The people of Kashmir need to live a life of normalcy and not be perennially barricaded either because there is a bundh on the roads or firing or stone throwing. This kind of unrest disrupts the common population of going about their daily lives like buying essential necessities, going to school or college and office and with businesses shut there is a strain on the availability of goods and services. Considering the assumption that Narendra Modi and the BJP want normalcy to be there in Kashmir and taking off from the statement that Mehbooba Mufti made recently that 95% of the Kashmiris want peace, we should withdraw the armed forces from all civilian areas of Kashmir and repeal the AFSPA. This will build the confidence in the Kashmiri people that the government is serious about ushering in normalcy. At the same time it should be made clear that no nonsense will be tolerated and those that are not supportive of normalcy returning will be dealt with severely according to prevailing laws.

The separatists of different hues that exist in Kashmir should be clearly told that they should toe the line otherwise they should ship out to where they think that their interests are best served. However, as long as they are in Kashmir no separatist activity of any kind will be tolerated and they will be dealt strictly as per prevailing laws in the event they contravene any of the laws or act in a manner that will encourage public unrest. Given the earlier background of these leaders if they fail to listen to reason, they should be progressively put under house arrest, their movements restricted and passports withdrawn.

As for dealing with terrorists who sneak in from across the border, our army and paramilitary forces should beef up their strength and capabilities to man, patrol and intercept anyone from sneaking in and causing mayhem in Kashmir. In the event of further attacks by terrorists we should in the manner as we did in case of the Uri attack retaliate and take out the terrorists camps on the other side of the border as long as such strikes are militarily feasible. In this manner we should sanitise a 2 Km. swathe of area on the Pakistan and PoK side of the border and the LoC and make it free of terrorist camps. This will then ensure that we get respect from Pakistan that we mean what we say and are capable of enforcing our way in the event of Pakistan not amenable to our requests to control or stop terrorist activity either by they themselves or through ‘non-State actors’.

This is the only way forward if Narendra Modi and his government wants to bring in lasting peace in Kashmir. There is a great deal of risk involved in the above proposition but like they say – Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained – and in the event it works then the greatest gift for India would be the Kashmiri people rejecting any of Pakistan’s interventions in Kashmir.

Congress Party Struggling To Remain Relevant

The Congress political party is clearly in disarray and losing relevance by the day. It is time that the Gandhis recognised this and took some concrete corrective action in re-vitalising the party. With Sonia Gandhi more often than not indisposed and Rahul Gandhi concentrating on sound bytes with his flippant and superficial comments against Narendra Modi which are going stale by the day, the leadership should realise that it is time the Congress raised substantive issues of governance to remain a political force in the country.

The Wrong Emphasis On Poverty Alleviation & Economic Growth

Arvind Panagariya Vice-Chairman, Niti Aayog stated recently that urbanization is the solution to poverty alleviation, quoting BRICS countries ratios of urbanization and wanting to catch up. This is nothing but being supportive of land sharks and the real-estate lobby sacrificing the interests of the aam admi. The hypothesis here is to initiate large scale migration to the cities from our rural areas. It is a well known fact that communities are best prosperous and happy where their means of livelihood is close at hand. Thus if our rural communities are assured gainful income from the produce that they grow in their fields or in the businesses that they run to support the agricultural activity, they will decidedly have nothing to seek from moving to our urban centres. The quality of life is definitely much better in the rural areas than in the slums that they would have to largely migrate to in the cities. In the BRICS countries other than in Russia which is a somewhat unknown factor rapid urbanization has resulted in a strain on the cities leading to the creation of ghetto-like slums not very much unlike Dharavi that we have in Mumbai. Surely this is not the quality of life that we would like to offer to those who will migrate to our cities. This kind of logic is being perpetrated by the UN also which for the last decade or more has been pushing the earlier UPA government and now the present government to encourage migration from rural areas to the cities. The premise here being that it will lead to an impetus to improved development. In fact, quite the contrary, it will lead to negative development. The Indian cities will break under the stress of this large incoming population from the rural areas and the consequent demand on essential services like water, electricity, sewerage, health services and education will undergo a breakdown or a distortion in supply. We seem sometimes to act in contradictory ways since the trend for supply of electricity and potable water is to charge consumers more and more. Will the newly migrated rural folk be able to pay for these essential necessities? If not, like the old saying are we thrusting them from the boiling pot into the fire? There is no problem with migration that is voluntary but we should not deliberately engineer it.

Thus all things considered it is best that we allow the rural community to remain where they are and involve in agriculture activity which will engender better availability of food and also spur growth rates of the economy. It has been a known fact that on the back of a good monsoon whenever our agriculture production has seen a reasonable growth, the Indian economy as a whole has done well. The reason being that more money in the hands of the rural people has led to a sharp increase in the demand for consumer goods, consumer durables and also automobiles and 2-wheelers like motorcycles and scooters. This has been the reason that close to two decades now the MNC’s involved in consumer goods have been concentrating on the rural market to secure double digit growth for their existing products, considering that the urban markets for these products are seeing a saturation. Even the late President Kalam had emphasized many a time that the future growth of the country’s economy lies in the rural areas and it is important that we concentrate on improving the services in these areas. Thus the Niti Aayog toeing the UN’s line is contradictory to local reality. This is all the more since if we encourage large scale migration from the rural areas to our cities, the agriculture sector already reeling under shortage of manpower will be deprived further of hands to support the growth of food for the Indian population. Long term this will result in shortage of agricultural production leading us to become more a food importing country than we are today. We all remember the days of the 1960’s when we had to manage with PL480 aid from the USA and on import of substandard rice from Thailand. WE should not bring back those days for our grandchildren and negate whatever benefits we derived from the Green Revolution.

Another wrong premise that is going the rounds of our economists is that if rural income goes up then it will lead to a spurt in inflation particularly for food. This is retrograde thinking since our farmers deserve to get the best prices for their produce and no consumer minds the increase of market support prices for their produce. The windfall profits in agricultural items is made by the intermediaries like the wholesalers and retailers where a mark-up of more than 2 to 3 times the price is imposed. That is where the control has to take place. Again the economists as above suffer from the mistaken belief that with farmers getting better prices their quality of life will improve thus enhancing the local demand for vegetables, milk, chicken etc. and thus limiting the amount of these items available for sale in urban markets leading to a runaway increase in the prices of these items.  So the choice is clear, we either consciously deprive the farmer of better prices so that his lot remains as existing or worse or we increase the factors of production that will lead to a large-scale increase in the production of these items for both the rural and urban markets. Any right thinking person will definitely go for the second option since the overall well-being of the country and prosperity is in this option.

****************************