Wednesday, October 5, 2016


OPinionatED
or
VOX POPULI

by

Aam Admi

Issue: 170                 Date:  03.10.2016

Contents:
1.      The Way Forward In Kashmir

2.       Congress Party Struggling To Remain Relevant

3.      The Wrong Emphasis On Poverty Alleviation & Economic Growth



The Way Forward In Kashmir

We need to look at how Kashmir has been handled since the Modi-led BJP government came to power in the Centre. In an attempt to keep the Congress - National Conference at bay the BJP had decided to go in for an opportunistic alliance with the PDP to form the government in Kashmir. There was no ideological basis for the alliance and with the few seats that the BJP get in Jammu and looking at the PDP strength in the Valley a marriage of convenience was hurriedly cobbled up. The squabbling between the two partners post-elections continued though it did not reach a breaking point since both the parties realised that they had more to lose in separating than in staying together.  Then the PDP supremo, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed died and that event really set the cat among the pigeons for the alliance and by extension into Kashmir. Mehbooba Mufti anointed successor to lead the PDP by Mufti Saheb himself had cold feet on two issues. The first was sitting on the CM's chair and putting the crown of thorns on her head since being CM of Kashmir was nobed of roses. The second was the alliance with the BJP. Thus after an extended period of dilly-dallying explained away as the time of mourning that Mehbooba Mufti needed, she accepted the challenge of becoming the first woman Chief Minister of Kashmir.

The time between Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's death and Mehbooba Mufti accepting to become the Chief Minister was when Kashmir had essentially no government. This interregnum after a relatively extended period of peace was what was taken advantage of by the separatists to push through their agenda and foment local unrest and encourage terrorist activity from across the border. Thus Mehbooba Mufti had from almost Day 1 to face problems relating to either local law and order incidents involving stoning or cross-border terrorist activity and the continued over-reaction of the army and para-military forces in handling such activity. It was not settled times in Kashmir and the burning fuse was lit when Burhan Wani was killed in the encounter and the State immediately went up in flames thereafter. Close to a hundred days of disturbances followed with almost the same number of Kashmiris killed in this period and the unrest leading to disarray in the lives of innocent citizens. Is this what the BJP calls Kashmir being an integral part of India? Does Kashmir not deserve the calm and peace that other Indian citizens largely enjoy? Do the Kashmiri not deserve to go to schools and the youth to colleges in the pursuit of a better life? Kashmir was near normal almost six months ago when tourists had again started to return. But then what happened thereafter? Does the BJP have an answer to this question having been part of the government in Kashmir? Does the BJP not have a responsibility therefore by virtue of being a part of the government to ensure normalcy as close as it is possible for the Kashmiris to go about their day to day lives?

Let us step back a moment to almost two years ago when Narendra Modi took over the reins of government with the BJP getting an astounding absolute majority. This should have encouraged Modi and his government to try and resolve the problems in Kashmir and bring some normalcy to the State. If based on some of his utterances lately after meetings with Mehbooba Mufti and if he intends to get down to brass tacks then he has to follow some basic general principles. As it is known Kashmir has been a festering problem defying a solution because of the machinations of the separatists residing in the State, the activities of terrorists from across the border in Pakistan and PoK with quite some assistance from local people and finally the partly brainwashed local population who feel that India has given them a raw deal and schizophrenically inclined to independence for Kashmir or to be aligned with Pakistan. The situation has got further complicated with some insensitive and intransigent reactions of our armed forces both military and paramilitary based in Kashmir categorised as human rights excesses by the local population and desirable action to ensure law and order by the armed forces. 

Thus in this given situation any new government taking guard at the Centre should have accorded top priority to resolving the Kashmir tangle in winning over the hearts and minds of the local population. This more so when it ventured to hold the reins of government in the State albeit jointly with the PDP. However, strangely the BJP including its top brass refused to accept this responsibility and tended to ignore the reality in Kashmir and preferred to play second fiddle to the PDP in the government. Even Narendra Modi must accept the blame for not giving enough attention to Kashmir being completely obsessed with his foreign trips and when he fleetingly did with great immaturity it was to drop in for a cup of 'chai' with Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan. The ingenuous approach that Modi adopted to one would assume to break the ice that had settled more thickly than at the Arctic circle in the 69 years of Indo-Pak relations because of Kashmir has been proven now to be ill-conceived if not completely immature. Where Modi should have concentrated on the people of Kashmir he went across the border to find a solution to a problem of what he calls of his own people and an integral part of India. 

The people of Kashmir need to live a life of normalcy and not be perennially barricaded either because there is a bundh on the roads or firing or stone throwing. This kind of unrest disrupts the common population of going about their daily lives like buying essential necessities, going to school or college and office and with businesses shut there is a strain on the availability of goods and services. Considering the assumption that Narendra Modi and the BJP want normalcy to be there in Kashmir and taking off from the statement that Mehbooba Mufti made recently that 95% of the Kashmiris want peace, we should withdraw the armed forces from all civilian areas of Kashmir and repeal the AFSPA. This will build the confidence in the Kashmiri people that the government is serious about ushering in normalcy. At the same time it should be made clear that no nonsense will be tolerated and those that are not supportive of normalcy returning will be dealt with severely according to prevailing laws.

The separatists of different hues that exist in Kashmir should be clearly told that they should toe the line otherwise they should ship out to where they think that their interests are best served. However, as long as they are in Kashmir no separatist activity of any kind will be tolerated and they will be dealt strictly as per prevailing laws in the event they contravene any of the laws or act in a manner that will encourage public unrest. Given the earlier background of these leaders if they fail to listen to reason, they should be progressively put under house arrest, their movements restricted and passports withdrawn.

As for dealing with terrorists who sneak in from across the border, our army and paramilitary forces should beef up their strength and capabilities to man, patrol and intercept anyone from sneaking in and causing mayhem in Kashmir. In the event of further attacks by terrorists we should in the manner as we did in case of the Uri attack retaliate and take out the terrorists camps on the other side of the border as long as such strikes are militarily feasible. In this manner we should sanitise a 2 Km. swathe of area on the Pakistan and PoK side of the border and the LoC and make it free of terrorist camps. This will then ensure that we get respect from Pakistan that we mean what we say and are capable of enforcing our way in the event of Pakistan not amenable to our requests to control or stop terrorist activity either by they themselves or through ‘non-State actors’.

This is the only way forward if Narendra Modi and his government wants to bring in lasting peace in Kashmir. There is a great deal of risk involved in the above proposition but like they say – Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained – and in the event it works then the greatest gift for India would be the Kashmiri people rejecting any of Pakistan’s interventions in Kashmir.


Congress Party Struggling To Remain Relevant


The Congress political party is clearly in disarray and losing relevance by the day. It is time that the Gandhis recognised this and took some concrete corrective action in re-vitalising the party. With Sonia Gandhi more often than not indisposed and Rahul Gandhi concentrating on sound bytes with his flippant and superficial comments against Narendra Modi which are going stale by the day, the leadership should realise that it is time the Congress raised substantive issues of governance to remain a political force in the country.


The Wrong Emphasis On Poverty Alleviation & Economic Growth


Arvind Panagariya Vice-Chairman, Niti Aayog stated recently that urbanization is the solution to poverty alleviation, quoting BRICS countries ratios of urbanization and wanting to catch up. This is nothing but being supportive of land sharks and the real-estate lobby sacrificing the interests of the aam admi. The hypothesis here is to initiate large scale migration to the cities from our rural areas. It is a well known fact that communities are best prosperous and happy where their means of livelihood is close at hand. Thus if our rural communities are assured gainful income from the produce that they grow in their fields or in the businesses that they run to support the agricultural activity, they will decidedly have nothing to seek from moving to our urban centres. The quality of life is definitely much better in the rural areas than in the slums that they would have to largely migrate to in the cities. In the BRICS countries other than in Russia which is a somewhat unknown factor rapid urbanization has resulted in a strain on the cities leading to the creation of ghetto-like slums not very much unlike Dharavi that we have in Mumbai. Surely this is not the quality of life that we would like to offer to those who will migrate to our cities. This kind of logic is being perpetrated by the UN also which for the last decade or more has been pushing the earlier UPA government and now the present government to encourage migration from rural areas to the cities. The premise here being that it will lead to an impetus to improved development. In fact, quite the contrary, it will lead to negative development. The Indian cities will break under the stress of this large incoming population from the rural areas and the consequent demand on essential services like water, electricity, sewerage, health services and education will undergo a breakdown or a distortion in supply. We seem sometimes to act in contradictory ways since the trend for supply of electricity and potable water is to charge consumers more and more. Will the newly migrated rural folk be able to pay for these essential necessities? If not, like the old saying are we thrusting them from the boiling pot into the fire? There is no problem with migration that is voluntary but we should not deliberately engineer it.

Thus all things considered it is best that we allow the rural community to remain where they are and involve in agriculture activity which will engender better availability of food and also spur growth rates of the economy. It has been a known fact that on the back of a good monsoon whenever our agriculture production has seen a reasonable growth, the Indian economy as a whole has done well. The reason being that more money in the hands of the rural people has led to a sharp increase in the demand for consumer goods, consumer durables and also automobiles and 2-wheelers like motorcycles and scooters. This has been the reason that close to two decades now the MNC’s involved in consumer goods have been concentrating on the rural market to secure double digit growth for their existing products, considering that the urban markets for these products are seeing a saturation. Even the late President Kalam had emphasized many a time that the future growth of the country’s economy lies in the rural areas and it is important that we concentrate on improving the services in these areas. Thus the Niti Aayog toeing the UN’s line is contradictory to local reality. This is all the more since if we encourage large scale migration from the rural areas to our cities, the agriculture sector already reeling under shortage of manpower will be deprived further of hands to support the growth of food for the Indian population. Long term this will result in shortage of agricultural production leading us to become more a food importing country than we are today. We all remember the days of the 1960’s when we had to manage with PL480 aid from the USA and on import of substandard rice from Thailand. WE should not bring back those days for our grandchildren and negate whatever benefits we derived from the Green Revolution.

Another wrong premise that is going the rounds of our economists is that if rural income goes up then it will lead to a spurt in inflation particularly for food. This is retrograde thinking since our farmers deserve to get the best prices for their produce and no consumer minds the increase of market support prices for their produce. The windfall profits in agricultural items is made by the intermediaries like the wholesalers and retailers where a mark-up of more than 2 to 3 times the price is imposed. That is where the control has to take place. Again the economists as above suffer from the mistaken belief that with farmers getting better prices their quality of life will improve thus enhancing the local demand for vegetables, milk, chicken etc. and thus limiting the amount of these items available for sale in urban markets leading to a runaway increase in the prices of these items.  So the choice is clear, we either consciously deprive the farmer of better prices so that his lot remains as existing or worse or we increase the factors of production that will lead to a large-scale increase in the production of these items for both the rural and urban markets. Any right thinking person will definitely go for the second option since the overall well-being of the country and prosperity is in this option.



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