VOX POPULI
by
Aam Admi
Issue: 157 Date: 27.06.2016
Contents:
1. NSG-GST
2. Dals Rising!
3. Urbanisation As Poverty Alleviator?
NSG-GST
The
bogeys in Narendra Modi’s head are GST and NSG, both three letter
abbreviations, which are haunting him. In the NSG initiative, he has yet come a
cropper even after almost going down on his knees to President Xi of China to
seek their approval. Why NSG, some may
ask? And why are USA & France supporting India even though we have not
signed the NPT – Nuclear Proliferation Treaty? What happens to Pakistan if
India gets into the NSG? The answer to these questions are firstly, India does
not need the NSG since basically nuclear energy and its use for power
generation are a big No-No considering India’s high population density and
location of plants near high population centres. One accident will wipe large
numbers of Indians which obviously is unacceptable. The accidents at nuclear power
generation facilities in Japan and the US have proved this risk is real while
accidents in Russia, UK and France have shown that accidents are well within
the realm of reality. With no nuclear power generation there is no need for
NSG. Second, USA and France want to encourage India getting into the NSG
because of their business interests connected with the supply of nuclear power
generation equipment that runs into billions of dollars or euros. Thirdly, both
India and Pakistan have not signed the NPT which is mandatory for NSG
membership. India may get through based on its track record of proven
non-proliferation and peaceful uses of nuclear energy but Pakistan does not
have the same impeccable credentials. In contrast, Pakistan are known
proliferators of nuclear weapons and technology to the Middle East countries
like Saudi Arabia and North Korea. And with India in international affairs
being always counterbalanced with Pakistan in strategic matters, admitting
India into NSG means also offering membership to Pakistan, which fact is not
palatable to countries like Switzerland who along with others want to go by the
rule book – sign the NPT and then come into the NSG. These were the known
constraints to even Modi but he preferred to go into overdrive and like in the chai
initiative with Nawaz Sharif, fell flat on his face.
The
GST is the other bogey that Modi currently carries on his back. It is a
necessary evil but then the BJP does not have the numbers in the Rajya Sabha to
carry the legislation through. This inspite of whatever little gains were made
by the BJP in the recent Assembly elections and then somewhat reflected in the
following Rajya Sabha elections. Thus here though there is a consensus among
the States there is a numbers barrier to surmount. And then there is the canny
Jayalalithaa who has been the bane of BJP bachelors, self enforced or
otherwise, like Vajpayeee and now Modi,
who seems to want to strike a hard bargain saying that Tamil Nadu is a manufacturing
State and should not have to lose out if GST comes into force. Anyway thus the
GST path has still a few thorns to cross. The fight for the numbers in GST
explains the obsessive emphasis on elections with this BJP leadership like now
the focus is on UP and Punjab. Though Amit Shah is in charge of this exercise
as BJP President Modi finds it hard to resist to take a plunge in it off and
on.
Concluding
one must say that the NSG and GST have been taking away valuable time from Modi
who should have been concentrating on the nitty gritties of governance. Like
getting into NSG will not bring down prices of essential commodities like
vegetables and pulses or controlling inflation which is the first priority of
the people now. Many people have started to ask – Where are the achhe din?
– because the aching days is what we are in.
Dals Rising!
By
the time the tomato was taking its seasonal ascendancy of price the dals
or pulses were perking up with urad dal leading the pack, tur dal
in its hot pursuit and the lesser dals stringing along the back like on
a F-1 race track. The magic figure of Rs. 200/- per Kg. was what urad dal
had breached almost a year ago which it was close to repeating now while the
others were trying to scale up as much as they could. This was no good news for
the government which again went into a huddle and announced that they would go
after the hoarders and take measures to import pulses from overseas. Does this
help the common man? Not in the least since while the government continues to
do its acrobatics, he has to continue to eat the dal at Rs. 200 per Kg.
Let
us for a moment trace what action the government took when urad dal
breached the barrier of Rs. 200 per Kg. close to a year ago. We had the same
flurry of meetings by the government with the promise to crack down on hoarders
and arrange imports to balance and improve the availability in the market. At
that point in time news was leaked that large amount of pulses to the extent of
a lakh tonnes was seized from hoarders and that additionally imported pulses
had arrived at the docks which would normalize the prices further. These
measures one must say worked to some extent and the prices of dal
dropped to Rs. 140. Additionally to
encourage production of pulses in the country the government raised the support
prices of a host of pulses. This was with the objective that in the long term,
have farmers stop from taking up other crops and increase acreage for the
cultivation of pulses. This happened only about 6 months back. But then the
prices of urad dal ignoring these measures started once again on its
climb up the price ladder. Thus a couple of months back the government decided
to enforce a ceiling of Rs. 120 per Kg for urad and tur dal. This holy
resolve remained on paper only except for some limited sales at that price from
centrally regulated stores in Delhi. And then once again in the last three
months the price rise started again to its present culmination back at the
magic figure of Rs. 200 per Kg.
Let
us analyse this case now and see the fine difference between intent and
implementation. Firstly, you cannot fault the government since they were aware
and well-informed of the problem. They took action against hoarders to increase
immediate availability. But unfortunately the government, more State than
Centre, was hand-in-glove with the hoarders and probably told the hoarders to
forsake some of their stocks to the seizure and probably told them that after
the present heat dies down, that they could take advantage of the market once
again. Secondly, the efforts at imports were well meant but immediate shipment
is always difficult in such commodities since forward contracts come into play
and stocks are almost always committed. To add to this the countries producing
pulses like in Africa and in Turkey had relatively less production making the
market more difficult. Another thing that happens in international markets is
that when large buyers like India come in then there is cartelization and
prices are jacked up. Thus without a strategic and deliberate long term plan
commodity buying is an extremely difficult exercise. India had seen this couple
of years ago when it moved in to buy wheat internationally and prices had been
raised to such a level by sellers that it was completely unviable to import. On
the pulses front, the third effort was that the government was thinking of
growing pulses by contract farming in places in Africa like Mozambique. This is
a good initiative but action has to follow to make this happen.
We
have seen these random escalations in prices for vegetables, pulses as well as
sugar which points to an intrinsic deep-rooted problem. None of us would mind
paying the high prevailing prices if we were sure that a large part of the
increase goes into the farmer’s pockets but the unfortunate part is that these
machinations of price variations are orchestrated to fill the pockets of the
distribution chain, both wholesalers and retailers, who are getting fatter day
by day which is disturbing. The BJP has for long been known as a traders party
and sympathetic to the trade which reputation it should forsake by taking
action to bring a reasonable regulation of prices. Concluding, the government
is best advised to review why prices of pulses went up again within a year
despite its best intentions to limit it, plug those loopholes and then embark
upon a long term structural plan to build availability for food irrespective of
the vagaries of the monsoon. This is important since the executive in its
wisdom has passed the Food Security Act which should not collapse because the
government has no food to distribute to those it had promised.
Urbanisation As
Poverty Alleviator?
Prime Minister
Narendra Modi while inaugurating the Smart City program at Pune on 26th
June 2016 spoke on urbanization being the process through which poverty
alleviation can be achieved. One does not know whether this argument was made
as part of the common rhetoric that Modi is known for to justify the Smart City
program or whether the man really means it. If it is the former then there is
not much of a problem but if it is the latter then we are seriously in trouble.
India is a country
where more than 60% of its people live in rural areas. We are also a
predominantly agriculture based economy with a majority of our people involved
in agriculture. Anyone with a little knowledge of economics and sociology will
tell you that it is best that people are allowed to remain where they are and
provide them gainful employment at their place of existence. The present
position in the Indian context is that people migrate to urban centres from
rural areas primarily because of agricultural activity being dominated by the
monsoon and in bad monsoon or drought years there is no choice with the rural
folk but to move to cities to keep body and soul together. The fact that even
after seven decades of independent India we do not have an organized irrigation
system across the country to deliver desired levels of agricultural output and
that we have to continue to depend on the rains every year to get a good
harvest is a shame. But that is not the subject of present debate, though some
may say that if we had an efficient irrigation system then migration to city
centres would have been reduced. There is nothing wrong with migration but it
should be voluntary, personal-need based and not be driven by want and despair
as it is happening now. The people are moving into cities looking for jobs. And
these people are not skilled and are the kind who work under the MNREGA program
like digging canals, clearing land etc. which are the most menial jobs. There
are also women who come across to the cities as part of their families who seek
work like being domestic helps. Thus effectively by encouraging urbanization we
are transferring poverty from the rural areas to the urban areas.
There are no jobs even
in the cities and there is this incoming class of people who are competing for
the lowest level of jobs which creates tension within the communities. They are
also exploited by the employers leading to a situation of bonded labour through
the process of deprivation and want. The migrating people arriving at the
cities take over common public areas for living and/or add to the existing
slums. Thus city dwellers are deprived of
common spaces. Moreover the lack of jobs and the fact that these people are
almost at the point of starvation leads to increased crime. Thus overall it is
best that the rural people remain where they are that is in the villages.
It is the
responsibility of the government to ensure that they get proper facilities
there in terms of generating earning power and living happily rather than add
to the urban mess. We have examples in India itself of agriculture communities
doing well like the farmers in Punjab. This should be replicated across the
country so that the people in its villages and small towns see no need to look
up to the big cities. Essentially agriculture growth is to be fostered which
will serve the twin objectives of providing food and also keep the rural people
in their own villages. Let us provide them the latest facilities like Internet
etc. so that we have lesser of a divide between the agrarian and the urban
communities. In fact with saturating markets in urban centres the consumer and
durable goods industry are looking towards the rural markets for extra growth.
Let us not therefore pursue this Western model of urbanization with its known
pitfalls of creating ghettos, slums that put increasing stress on basic
services delivery and generation of inner city crime. We have seen this happen
in our own cities like Mumbai with Dharavi as the largest slum in the world.
The same problems have been seen across the world where disparity in incomes
has driven migration to cities like Dacca – Bangladesh, Rio de Janeiro –
Brazil, Mexico City – Mexico among many examples. Let us not follow them and
get into the same problems.
As for the Smart
City program it is not that it is without merit but unfortunately it is all the
same programs of delivery of basic services like power, water, health,
transport, solid waste handling etc. which our cities are struggling with apart
from the focus on some new things like Internet access etc. Thus it is nothing
but old wine put in a new bottle. Again calling a city smart does not add value
to it or elevates its reputation. A city should become smart by showing its
performance and earn that label. That is what would make the tag smart, durable
and more sustaining. Considering basic
services is what every city has been working on, they should have been asked to
achieve certain benchmarks of delivery comparable to international standards on
these aspects and show that they can achieve these standards over a period of
time and hold onto them. Then with added parameters on the new-fangled or
modern services they should have been asked to earn the label of being a Smart
City in a competitive manner. This would have been a better way of achieving an
improved standard of living for people in cities which is starting from the
grassroots rather than top down. Thus urbanization or its evolved status in the
Smart City program does not increase income of the people living in the cities
except for the consultants, contractors and decision makers involved in the
projects. The average city dweller is the user and is looking at the Smart City
program to make his life easier and more comfortable. But for that over time he
will be forced to pay through his nose for services like power, water, garbage
disposal and every other service that he needs in the city. Maybe at one point
of time he would consider moving back to the villages, in a sense that reverse
migration would happen because he finds no meaning in paying extra for services
in the name of Smart City while the quality of delivery has not changed for the
better.
On the Smart City
program if you see the list of first 20 cities in the 1st phase, you
have cities like Chennai and Delhi cheek by jowl with Warangal and Davangere.
There is a problem of scale here. The difficulties for a big metro are very
much different from a smaller city simply because the population scale is
different. If we were interested in
improving our cities we should have made a list of cities of similar levels of
population and standardized to the extent possible the delivery of basic
services and set benchmarks for each service. This method would have helped
standardize and cross-share the implementation among different cities and get
them to develop together and to the same uniform standards. What we are doing
with the Smart City program as it is now is perpetuating the problems that we
have existing. If you look around India, wherever urban centres exist in States
there is a skewed distribution of population in these places with one massive
metro city and followed by another urban centre with not even 20% of the
population of the big city. And then the next city or town drops a further
one-fifth or one-sixth in scale. Take Maharasthra for example where after
Mumbai you have maybe Pune or Nagpur which in terms of population are lagging
far behind. Same is with other States like West Bengal where after Kolkata you
have Asansol which has just 1/6th of Kolkata’s population. Thus the
Smart City program for whatever it is worth should be applied to these Tier –
II and III cities and allow them to grow so that in each state we have at least
5 to 6 cities or towns that can aspire to be metros. The problems of the Metro
cities will continue to exist but they can be handled at a different level
under the urban rejuvenation programs.
Concluding one would
thus have a happy and prosperous India who are self-sufficient in its villages,
towns and cities and no citizen except for his/her own personal reasons should
be compelled to move across these locations for either want or under duress.
The plans of Narendra Modi are packaging existing necessities into programs giving
a catchy and contemporary label to them and hoping that they will get accepted
by the people and in that process bring credit to him and his party, the BJP.
This is all déjà vu, where the BJP seems to have not forgotten their days of
India Shining which made them lose their seats of power. There is a growing
disconnect again between the BJP and the common man which will be detrimental
to the party. It is unfortunate that the BJP is succumbing to the drum-major
tactics of Narendra Modi and falling in line behind him little knowing that
like Pied Piper he is going to take the entire nation to the edge and maybe
even over the precipice.
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