VOX POPULI

by

Aam Admi

Issue:123

Date: 28.07.2012

Contents:

1. The Indian Economy Slipping Into Recession On A Bed Of Lies

2. Keep Pakistan At Arm's Length

3. BJP Devoid Of Real-Politik

4. With NCP Tiff, The UPA Split Is Wide Open

5. Rahul Gandhi: The Reluctant Leader

The Indian Economy Slipping Into Recession On A Bed Of Lies

The Indian economy continues to show indifferent performance and is slowly but surely slipping into recession. Manufacturing for May showed a blip of an increase compared to a negative in the previous month but Capital Goods production continued to decline which is indicative that long term growth in manufacturing would be impacted. The latest decision of the government is not to release break-up figures for the sectors that constitute the IIP. Thus what was a surmise is now fact that the government is fiddling with the figures, otherwise in these days of transparency where is the need to do the dance of the ‘seven veils’ with the figures unless it is a habit with our bureaucrats to do the dance with six digits hyphenated at two digit intervals. Exports for June showed a marginal spurt which given the Commerce Ministry’s track record one is never sure whether it is fudging or a real increase and considering the growth being in the low single digits it is easy to decorate these figures to manage public opinion. This assumption is borne out by the reports coming in that the Labour Ministry’s survey for unemployment resulted with widely varying figures like 17% for Goa to 1% for Gujarat with other States also showing varying figures. The Ministry has now decided to withdraw these figures and look into the methodology of the survey which revision will be used in the next surveys. There is a background here, as it is understood that in 2010 the Ministry had claimed unemployment figures of some 13% when the NSSO (National sample Survey Organisation) figures on the same in 2008 was about 3.5%, and these variations were asked to be examined. These matters give credence to the fact that the government is ‘managing and massaging’ the figures and any figures that they put out hereafter should be taken with a pinch of salt. The approach of the government and its spokespersons seems to be to paint a rosy picture until they are caught out in their act and then blame it on processes and procedures. This also applies to claims that for FDI, ndia is a desired destination while actual figures show that we do not even receive even half the FDI that China gets and even lower than what Brazil and South Africa get among the BRIC countries. It is like the old saying that – An Empty Tin Makes The Most Noise, and the government of India with not having much to report lately with its non-achievement arising out of ‘policy paralysis’ is trying to rattle the empty tin as much as it can and then when the noise gets muted tends to look inside the tin with surprise to find out as to what went wrong. The problem is that the ministers and people in the government like bureaucrats get into the habit of believing these ‘managed’ figures on the saying that the more you tell a lie there is every chance that people will believe it is the truth. Thus the actual truth never surfaces and in that manner our economy has got lost under the piles of lies being put out from the PM, the PMO, the Planning Commission, the Finance Minister, the Agricultural Minister, the Food & Civil Supplies Minister etc. (Have we left out anybody?) And it has ended up as managing lies like if there is a drought or excess monsoon the prices will go up since there will be a shortage of items and commodities while in the latter case prices will still go up because the roads would have got washed away by the rains and stuff cannot get into the market. They even have an excuse for normal rains and say wait for 3/6/9 months depending on who is speaking and who has someone in the family in the family way. We wish them a happy delivery but each time such assurances are made the economy has been born still-born every time meaning nothing has changed.

Keep Pakistan At Arm's Length

It has been reported that President Zardari has still not been forthcoming on his promised $1 Million donation to the Chisthi shine in Ajmer during his last visit to India. This sums up the Pakistan psyche where they say one thing more often than not to keep face and an assumed sense of importance and bravado while in action do the completely opposite. When they are less than diligent on their promises to religious shrines how can we believe them when it comes to promises they make in bilateral affairs like in the last episode of Surjeet Singh’s release in place of Sarabjit and many more important matters like the 26/11 investigations etc. After Zardari's visit India released Dr Chisthi (the names are similar to that of the saint in Ajmer) which cannot be really grudged considering his age but India either did not ask for Sarabjit's release then as a quid pro quo or if it did then Zardari welshed on the deal but India did not stop at that and gave permission for Dr Chisthi to visit Pakistan which was completely unnecessary. Now we have gone and agreed to playing cricket with Pakistan in India which was avoidable. We need to realise that here it is not just cricket but that we need to keep Pakistan at arm's length until they learn to play ball on terror and Kashmir before we move on to sporting and cultural ties. The relationship with nations particularly with Pakistan in this context cannot be expected to normalise from the sporting field and sympathetic issues like that of Dr Chisthi to the diplomatic table. With Pakistan we should keep talking but follow the maxim - Do Unto Others As They Do Unto You.

BJP Devoid Of Real-Politik

Now that Pranab Mukherji has won the election to be the 13th President of India, the BJP must be regretting for having supported a ‘lame-duck’ candidate like P A Sangma. Instead of that from the beginning if they had played a pro-active role on the Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections and started a dialogue with the Congress and the UPA then they could have struck a deal to make Pranab Mukherji the President and Jaswant Singh the Vice-President. This would not only have helped the BJP but also showed their desire to arrive at a consensus on important national issues. Thus the BJP instead of leading were in turn led by the nose by two small parties, the BJD and the AIDMK and their leaders Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalithaa in supporting P A Sangma. Clearly the strategy of the BJP could have been better since come next month Jaswant Singh is a sure loser to the UPA’s Hamid Ansari for the Vice-President’s post given the way things have shaped up.

With NCP Tiff, The UPA Split Is Wide Open

One must say that Mamata Banerji was quite perceptive last week when she had said that the President and Vice-President elections have splintered the UPA & NDA coalitions and put the Indian political scene in chaos. Almost on cue over the last few days Sharad Pawar and the NCP came out citing their unhappiness with the Congress for apparently the former's seniority issue within the present Central Cabinet but with more serious underlying differences and threatening to resign from the ministries held by them as also pull out of the UPA. The target in the cross-hairs of the NCP seems to be Prithviiraj Chavan, the Maharasthra CM who is accused of systematically targeting NCP in the State as also for his non-performance. Having just done a cut and paste job to the UPA with the threatened TMC withdrawal and extending a friendly hand to the SP & the BSP to shore up the President's election, the Congress will be hard put to resolve the NCP problem which is not so much a numbers issue but more of a loss of face in its inability to hold together a longterm ally with the ensuing general elections in mind.

Rahul Gandhi: The Reluctant Leader

The vacuum in leadership as also leaders in the Congress party is reflected in Rahul-baba's diffidence in accepting any position of responsibility in the party or in the government. The reluctance in holding responsible positions could be his personal character flaw following in the footsteps of his father, Rajiv or the comfort that he now basks in of being Mama's boy. In either event the Congress have a difficult task ahead of them in preparing for the 2014 elections with no leader or having reluctant leaders. In the absence of a strong binding force at the top the Congress will also go the same way as the other political parties like the BJP who are caught up more in internecine infighting and backbiting.

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